Brexit - The View Ahead

So far Boris has done everything right. Set out his position like he means it. Telling the EU they won’t get their money without a re-negotiated deal is spot-on. Refusing to travel to for meetings with people who say they won’t change their minds is solid stuff as well. Appearing to spend money on preparing for No Deal is just what the doctor ordered. It all makes us realise just how poor at negotiation Theresa May’s lot were.

According to the House of Parliament’s estimate’s https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/brexit-votes-by-constituency/ 408 MPs represent constituencies that voted 50.1% or more Leave. 363 voted 52% Leave, and 292 voted 55% Leave. That’s 292 MPs who should be voting to Leave There are 650 seats in the House. 163 MPs represent constituencies where Leave got 45% or less: they have a solid rationale for voting to repeal A50. That leaves 195 swing constituencies, where the statistics and estimates may blur the result.

I said voting to repeal A50. Not to create endless uncertainty and delay. Nobody voted for that. There was a point to frustrating the process in April when May brought her unacceptable agreement to the House. It was all they could do, and they should have done it. In typical British fashion, the House did the right thing for all the wrong reasons.

Most of the comments and calculations, and my first draft of this, were based on the assumption that the House was a bunch of weasels who want another Government to run the Government. That’s true of some of them: Corbyn and his thugs, Hammond and some others who don’t know their time has passed. Take their names, and treat them as exceptions.

Let’s assume that the House (of Commons) understands that, however much its individual members may want to Remain, almost all of them understand that they have been given their instructions and will not, therefore, be voting to repeal A50. Party policy or not.

The House can and should obstruct a really, really awful deal. It may feel it should obstruct an un-prepared No-Deal exit, though quite how much more time anyone in business needs since June 2016 is not clear. The EU will not throw the UK out. It needs the money and it doesn’t need the optics of “throwing out the UK”. So every time the House asks for an extension, the EU will oblige.

What the House needs to believe, however grudgingly and reluctantly, are two things: first, that the UK is prepared for a No-Deal exit, however imperfectly; and second, that the voters, and more importantly the companies that fund the political parties, are not willing to take another delay with yet more uncertainty.

Many of the MPs are much closer to both those conclusions than you might think. That’s because the media have not been reporting the preparations being made and the money being spent on a No-Deal UK. If they had, Project Fear would seem farcical. The MP’s however, see what is happening in their constituencies, and don’t believe the Guardian, Mark Carney or the Motor Industry any more than you and I do. No-Deal is going to be a speed-bump, not a car wreck, and a lot of MPs know this.

So what difference does Boris make? While Theresa May had Olly “Wormtongue” Robbins whispering in her ear, the House had very good reasons to suppose that any preparations would be insufficient, and that the deal would be awful. Boris can assure them that progress is being made, and come Halloween, the UK will be prepared enough. He can also remind them that the EU are not going to change a single word of the agreement, that the Backstop (My Precious!) will not be removed, at least by Junker’s administration, and that there is no point in buying more time, because nothing will change in the EU position at the end of it.

There’s something else. The House would have had no confidence in May’s ability to lead when and if anything awkward happened. She had the wrong advisors for that: Wormtongue would have told her that it was the consequence of leaving the EU and she should look to make peace with Mordor. The House did not, and rightly, want to step into the unknown with a weak leader who did not believe in her cause.

The House can believe that Boris will step up, and that his advisors are at least on his side.

An election would be a distraction for Boris’ preparations. The timing is awful, since Remainers need Parliament to be sitting in the weeks before Halloween, and Parliament doesn’t reconvene until the 3rd of September. It’s also irrelevant: this isn’t about a party political majority. It’s about a Leave-majority. Boris can’t count on his own party, just as Corbyn can’t count on his party.

Nobody has to vote to Leave. That was done in June 2016. They have to vote to obstruct Leave. To Leave, they just have to not come up with the tricks they used to prevent May’s agreement going through.

I started this by assuming the House was actually full of people who were, under a think layer of gunk, basically decent. I’m going to end it by reminding you that the mainstream media is presently staffed, managed and owned almost entirely by people who would not know the truth if it bit them in the ass and gave them an infectious disease.

Expect bought-and-paid-for Project Fear to rise to hysterical levels in October. It didn’t work in 2016, and it won’t work now. Not even the journalists believe it. However, the journalists’ masters don’t need you to believe it. They need just enough of 650 Very Special People to believe it.

Expect has-been ex-ministers and attention-seeking backbenchers to introduce ridiculous bills to frustrate the Halloween deadline. Expect most of those to be voted down by narrow margins. Expect screaming headlines and bought-and-paid-for marches in the last week of October. When Halloween comes and goes and the House fails to delay, because it has realised the EU cannot let go of its Precious, expect howls of anguish on the front pages of the mainstream media November 1st or some near date. For months afterwards, expect celebrity Remainers to threaten legal action. Expect every traffic jam near a port to be reported as a blow to UK trade. Expect every nasty, dirty trick in the book.

The difference between the MPs and the journalists is that MPs have to listen to the people, or they won’t be re-elected. Journalists have to listen to whoever pays their salary, and it’s been a long time since the revenue from the cover price and the local cinema and estate agents did that. Journalists are paid by billionaires and NGO / EU grants, and play the tunes those pipers want.

Which is slightly off-topic. I could be wrong about the MPs. Angela Merkel might tell Brussels to drop its Precious into Mount Doom and let the UK go, so Volkswagen can sell us some cars. The New Lot might view Brexit as a distraction, and want to be shot of Farage and an EU country which will apply for, and get, an exception to its Armed Forces being in the EU Army. With the UK in, Project Mo’ Yurup will always falter. The House might decide to commit collective suicide and repeal A50.

One thing I do know. I know this: If Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants a quick billion for his personal pension scheme, he just needs to threaten to open Turkey's Western borders in first week of October, and flood Europe with millions of vibrant and diverse lawyers and doctors.

‘Cause that’s what tipped the balance back in June 2016.