Monday, 13 January 2014

Approaching: A Food Chain Analysis

Acknowledged daygame maestro Krauser published his stats for 2013. His food chain - as it's called in the sales business - looks like this:

Numbers / Approaches: 25%
Dates / Numbers: 24%
iDates / Approaches: 1.5%
Lays / iDate: 53%
Lays / Dates: 32%

The least informative ratio to get from the numbers is Lays/Approaches (2.7%). Gross success ratios like that look as if they should be the ultimate bottom line, but are no use for understanding what's happening. Performance ratios are meaningful if they are tied to a discrete section of the process: there's way too much going on between between an Approach and a Lay for the Lays/Approaches ratio to mean anything.

(If you think 2.7% is bad, Direct Mail routinely yields sub-1% response rates, and full-page articles in national daily newspapers for esoteric piano recitals or fringe plays have response rates below 0.05%.)

Now let's have some fun and assume this will do as a representative sample of 20-30 year old 6+ female, mostly foreign, short-term, visitors to London - which is his chosen target group. Let's start by spinning that Numbers / Approaches around. Krauser is a self-confessed half-bald medium-height guy with a Geordie accent - not a Nine. However, he's got high-grade Game, determination and experience: a handful of hot PUAs and the thirteen Naturals in the UK might do better, but that's neither you nor me. Let's assume that Krauser's getting as good as it gets.

Then it's reasonable to assume that the reason he gets 25% Numbers/Approaches is because 75% of girls are hard-line unavailable-at-the-time, and a further 18% (76% of the 25% who did give a number) are unavailable-after-second-thoughts. This gives us 93% (75%+18%) unavailable for any of the 513 reasons girls are unavailable. This leaves 7% who are Up For It If... And only 35% (weighted average) of those will convert to Lays.

(7% doesn't sound bad, but there aren't that many 20-30 y/o 6+ foreign girls on their last day / night in London (it just seems like it), so their needs might be being met entirely by a handful of PUAs and a couple of Naturals. None left for you and me.)

How transferrable is this to girls who work in and around London? Some of it is and some isn't. Lays / Date (or iDate) is a function of your game and her interest. Sure, there are serial daters, freeloaders, husband-hunters, and girls who can't tell the difference between a job interview and a date, but not all girls are like that all the time. Let's say that with K-level game, even London-based girls can be converted 35% of the time.

What takes a huge hit is the number of approachable girls, and the Numbers / Approach and Dates / Number ratios. Most of the girls who come to London do so to get away from the pressure of having relationships, though there are some who still think it's a young person's playground, and are horribly disappointed when they find out it isn't. If London was full of approachable, attractive working girls here for the party, that's who Krauser would be writing about. And he's not. So that in mind, let's say that about 2.5% of London-based 6+ girls are Up For It If...

Applying that pro-rata, we get iDates / Approaches of 0.5% and Numbers / Approaches and Dates / Numbers of about 13% each. And that's on a small population.

In the words of Pete Townsend in Who Are You: "there's got to be a better way". There is, but it's time limited, and we'll talk about it later.

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