Why The Cases Really Don't Matter

According to the ONS survey, one in thirteen people currently have the virus. A year ago that would have had us all locked into our houses. But everybody is chill, nobody is wearing masks and the trains are packed. Why so cavalier about the once all-important "case numbers"? (Aside from the fact that the money to support all that lockdown nonsense has run out.)

The answer is in this graph.

It's the graph of the ratio of deaths-with and deaths-from the Virus to the infections (lagged by four weeks o fit the 28-day rule). (Accepting the convention that with-Covid is as bad as from-Covid: with-deaths are about the same as from-deaths, but note that it is a 'medical' judgement whether a death is with- or from- or even if the Virus was involved at all.)

One week at the start, the Alpha strain killed about 1 in 45 of the people who got it. The rest had a really bad couple of weeks. Fatality fell off sharply towards summer 2020, as it does for respiratory diseases. The Delta variant hit in autumn 2020 and through winter 20/21, killing up to 1 in 125 of the people who got it at one point. Again, fatality fell off towards summer 2021. As we went into autumn / winter 2021, fatality did not increase significantly That was the vaccines.

Here's the next graph, of the prevalence of the Virus (again, I'm accepting the convention that positive tests are an accurate proxy for actual infections, which is not as obvious as you might think, as medical tests do not work the way you think they do).

Almost nobody had the Alpha variant in 2020, and more than 98% of those survived. Delta was known to be more infectious, and the autumn 2020 restrictions were looser than the four month lockdown that followed. The graph follows the usual respiratory curve in 2021, falling to a restriction-induced low in Spring, before increasing after so-called "Freedom Day". There it remains until Omicron appears and sends the numbers through the roof, especially in the Christmas and New Year weeks. January is now a socially quiet month, which brought the prevalence down, and then removing restrictions and the legal requirement to self-isolate allowed people to behave "normally", sending the prevalence up again. By then, between the vaccines and the relatively benign nature of Omicron, so-called "cases" ceased to matter.

10 Things I Can't Live Without

Here was a quick-and-easy post idea I couldn't resist. Search the title on You Tube and you will get a number of videos. Some are vaguely troubling. It turns out a lot of people can't live without pocket knives. Really?

Infrastructure stuff like Amazon, trains, electricity, gas, running water, not being mugged on the way to the station, my house, gas cookers, the Internet, dentists, doctors, friends and family, my glasses, and in my case, the entire Apple ecosystem... is all taken as read.

So here's the list...

Sony WF 1000XM-3 earphones. These are as good as everyone says

Music. From wake-up music to falling asleep music and every moment in between

De Longhi Dedica Espresso machine and Lavazza Red coffee. 'Nuff said

Exercise. Currently a Bosu ball and home weights

The Car. When you need a car, you need a car. Not a cab or a bus

Foyles and Fopp. There is no substitute for browsing for books, DVDs and CDs

To-Do List. Currently in a Moleskine notebook. I find To-Do lists have to be handwritten

A good Thai massage service, and osteopath. Because I have lousy posture and eventually that turns into aches.

Scarves and gloves in winter. Man do my hands get cold fast now.

The Freedom Pass. Age has its privileges and not having to worry about if you can afford to use public transport is one of them.

Oh how mundane! But then, I'm a Brit, so a Glock and a military-grade locking knife are illegal. I left out the wallet because this isn't an EDC list. Where's the Air Miles membership, because I'm always travelling? I'd love the exercise to be a fancy West End gym, but I can't afford those kind of prices. The local David Lloyd centre is pretty damn pricey as well.

Walking Through Hampstead Woods and Heath (Part 2)

 

Walking Through Hampstead Woods and Heath (Part 1)

Daffodils in Highgate Woods

Nothing says Spring like blue skies, warm weather and daffodils

Taking (Personal) Stock After The Lockdowns - Part Two

What did I do before the Great Void that is still worth doing?

I was whinging about the cost and content of movies, and the cost and quality of eating out, before 2020. My ability to leave almost all of it on the gym floor and still make the commute home was waning. Millennials have been ruining the workplace, and everywhere else, with their virtue-signalling and bullying since about 2010. Corporate hypocrisy has always been strong, but for an employer to claim it cares about my `well-being' while moving all the desks closer together and turning the aircon down...? And TV programmes, even the police shows, featuring strong independent women being irritated by dumb, insensitive men? Puh. Lease.

Movies. okay, a new one now and again when I like the idea. Most of my movie watching will be at home. Let's try finding some of those 70's movies I liked and seeing them again. MUBI has a reasonable good selection of art movies. What I miss: going out to the cinema.

Restaurants. Apparently lots of chefs have lost their sense of taste because of the Virus. Sit-down meals are pretty much out at these prices.

Sadlers Wells. Just booked some shows in the 2022 Flamenco season this June.

Gym. Replaced by light exercises at home. As befits my years.

Museums and Galleries. Now that they are abandoning advance booking, and have dropped masks, this is back on. Let's have a project to go round all the ones I never had time to get to.

Foreign trips. Entirely dependent on other countries and airlines getting the message.

Hanging out in cafes. Sure. Not writing though. Don't like shlepping a shoulder bag everywhere now.

What do I do instead?

Snacks in bijou cafes.

Walks and trips to places in London I haven't been to for years.

More housekeeping and gardening. (Care for your house, care for yourself.)

For the moment that will do.

Taking (Personal) Stock After The Lockdowns - Part One

Sunday will be the second anniversary of the UK Lockdown.

Just to be clear: f**k everyone who imposed, administered or enabled lockdowns. A special Circle of Hell is being dug for them now.

It's supposed to be over now. I will believe that when we get through Winter 22/23 without any backsliding "Plan B's".

Anyway, let's take stock (*).

I've been trying to work out if I'm suffering from any kind of Post-Lockdown-Stress-Disorder. After all, I keep reading that I should be. Everyone else is, if they are a journalist.

I wasn't scared of The Virus. I had a laptop job and I live on my own, so I wasn't ever going to get close enough to anyone to get it.

I was concerned about a bogus stay-at-home order from some bored track-and-tracer having a lark.

So I took sensible precautions: no Track and Trace app, no signing in anywhere, no PCR tests, get the jabs to avoid pariah status, stay away from travel, and have nothing to do with people in the NHS (hospital workers are a primary vector of contagion, because hospitals are where all the sick people go).

I walked every day. Still do.

I did not put on a `lockdown stone'. Nor did I binge-watch anything. Well, unless you count You Tube. I did not have problems sleeping. I did save a bunch of money.

Basically, my strategy, after the first six or so weeks I spent in mild shock, was: wake me up when this b**ls**t is over. It seemed to have served me well.

Eventually I got into ordering stuff online and that is not going to change. I still shop for food, and I shopped for headphones, and I prefer to buy books and CDs from actual shops. Not going back into department stores unless it is utterly unavoidable.

What did I miss?

I used to go to Sadlers Wells, to a good gym in the West End, to the London art museums and galleries, to restaurants, and the Curzons and Everymans, to the big London bookshops. I used to walk in the parks, travel on the buses. Sit on the platform at Barons Court on a warm summer evening waiting for a District Line train. I used to sit in cafes reading or writing for half-an-hour, watching the people go by, feeling the atmosphere. And I'd take a foreign trip now and again. There were some light social interactions with various people, usually behind counters.(**)

Not much, but it was enough.

But I didn't miss it, because you can only miss something that is happening without you. The Lockdown cancelled everything like a hyperactive Millennial on Twitter. Nothing was happening, so there was nothing to miss.(***) The Lockdown was a two-year void.

What did I do before the Great Void that is still worth doing?

What do I drop?

What do I do instead?

It occurred to me after a while that I would have been asking those questions last year in a no-Virus alternative universe, because those questions aren't about the Virus, but about retirement. Under the circumstances, the two have been a little muddled for a while.

(*) This is about my life. If you lost a loved one, or a job, or a business, or your children were badly affected, or you got divorced, or your health was compromised, my condolences.

(**) For complicated but tedious reasons, office socialising was de minimus.

(***) This only makes sense if you live One Day At A Time. Normies can miss things that used to happen, but don't now. But that's Normies for you: they don't make sense.