Personal loans taken split by credit risk
Savings deposits and withdrawals <£1,000
Month-end current account balances
Credit transactions (income, basically) by category in current accounts
Spending by category through current accounts and credit cards
All compared to the same month in 2019. The first three run as a time series. The graph shows if people are doing more or less of whatever it is.
Why these metrics?
Personal loans are a significant decision and commitment. You're not going to take one if you're feeling insecure about your future. What I found was that the best-risk customers were borrowing as much as they were a year ago, but the worse-risk customers were borrowing less. A lot less. My estimate is that 40% of the population don't feel secure.
Savings deposits or withdrawals tell us about how much cash people have spare or need. Withdrawals fell a lot in the lockdown, but are returning to last year's levels. Deposits are up slightly: the longer-distance London commuters are saving a lot, but there aren't that many of them, compared to the size of the workforce, most of whom do not have as much to save.
Current account balances at month-end tell you if people have enough money to get by. Overdrafts are down on last year, credit balances are up slightly.
Now sit down.
Income and spending are at the same levels as they were last year.
I told you to sit down.
Yes, 1.2m people have lost their jobs and are claiming benefit. My data shows me the share I expect to see. Yes, in July around 4m people were getting 80% of their salary on furlough. These things are hitting the lower-paid more. The net effect of them losing income, but getting benefits, and of pay rises on last year for the remaining 80% of the working population still in full-time employment, is about zero.
Spending is at about the same level. How can that be when The Ledbury has closed and no-one can fly anywhere? Those activities have a high profile - at least for elite London-based journalists - but are a very small proportion of the economy - and again, mostly employ lower-paid workers. The bulk of most people's spending is non-discretionary: food, water, gas, electric, council tax, landline, mobile, insurance, petrol, road tax and the rest. Of discretionary spending, people have been doing DIY, buying furniture, or upgrading TV's, signing up for streaming services and spending more in supermarkets. Less spending in high street shops, more via mail order. Winners and losers in a zero-sum game.
That recovery everyone thinks is going to happen?
It happened. This is it. Same money, different consumption. That's how consumerism rolls.
What this tells us is that, faced with disruptive nonsense, people will attempt to lead the best lives they can within the restrictions. That's why everyone who was working in over-crowded hot-desk offices went home in a flash. Or why people on furlough did DIY or really did learn to play the piano.
And local high streets, and smaller commuter towns, with cafes and family restaurants are doing well.
All compared to the same month in 2019. The first three run as a time series. The graph shows if people are doing more or less of whatever it is.
Why these metrics?
Personal loans are a significant decision and commitment. You're not going to take one if you're feeling insecure about your future. What I found was that the best-risk customers were borrowing as much as they were a year ago, but the worse-risk customers were borrowing less. A lot less. My estimate is that 40% of the population don't feel secure.
Savings deposits or withdrawals tell us about how much cash people have spare or need. Withdrawals fell a lot in the lockdown, but are returning to last year's levels. Deposits are up slightly: the longer-distance London commuters are saving a lot, but there aren't that many of them, compared to the size of the workforce, most of whom do not have as much to save.
Current account balances at month-end tell you if people have enough money to get by. Overdrafts are down on last year, credit balances are up slightly.
Now sit down.
Income and spending are at the same levels as they were last year.
I told you to sit down.
Yes, 1.2m people have lost their jobs and are claiming benefit. My data shows me the share I expect to see. Yes, in July around 4m people were getting 80% of their salary on furlough. These things are hitting the lower-paid more. The net effect of them losing income, but getting benefits, and of pay rises on last year for the remaining 80% of the working population still in full-time employment, is about zero.
Spending is at about the same level. How can that be when The Ledbury has closed and no-one can fly anywhere? Those activities have a high profile - at least for elite London-based journalists - but are a very small proportion of the economy - and again, mostly employ lower-paid workers. The bulk of most people's spending is non-discretionary: food, water, gas, electric, council tax, landline, mobile, insurance, petrol, road tax and the rest. Of discretionary spending, people have been doing DIY, buying furniture, or upgrading TV's, signing up for streaming services and spending more in supermarkets. Less spending in high street shops, more via mail order. Winners and losers in a zero-sum game.
That recovery everyone thinks is going to happen?
It happened. This is it. Same money, different consumption. That's how consumerism rolls.
What this tells us is that, faced with disruptive nonsense, people will attempt to lead the best lives they can within the restrictions. That's why everyone who was working in over-crowded hot-desk offices went home in a flash. Or why people on furlough did DIY or really did learn to play the piano.
And local high streets, and smaller commuter towns, with cafes and family restaurants are doing well.
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