Why The Cases Really Don't Matter

According to the ONS survey, one in thirteen people currently have the virus. A year ago that would have had us all locked into our houses. But everybody is chill, nobody is wearing masks and the trains are packed. Why so cavalier about the once all-important "case numbers"? (Aside from the fact that the money to support all that lockdown nonsense has run out.)

The answer is in this graph.

It's the graph of the ratio of deaths-with and deaths-from the Virus to the infections (lagged by four weeks o fit the 28-day rule). (Accepting the convention that with-Covid is as bad as from-Covid: with-deaths are about the same as from-deaths, but note that it is a 'medical' judgement whether a death is with- or from- or even if the Virus was involved at all.)

One week at the start, the Alpha strain killed about 1 in 45 of the people who got it. The rest had a really bad couple of weeks. Fatality fell off sharply towards summer 2020, as it does for respiratory diseases. The Delta variant hit in autumn 2020 and through winter 20/21, killing up to 1 in 125 of the people who got it at one point. Again, fatality fell off towards summer 2021. As we went into autumn / winter 2021, fatality did not increase significantly That was the vaccines.

Here's the next graph, of the prevalence of the Virus (again, I'm accepting the convention that positive tests are an accurate proxy for actual infections, which is not as obvious as you might think, as medical tests do not work the way you think they do).

Almost nobody had the Alpha variant in 2020, and more than 98% of those survived. Delta was known to be more infectious, and the autumn 2020 restrictions were looser than the four month lockdown that followed. The graph follows the usual respiratory curve in 2021, falling to a restriction-induced low in Spring, before increasing after so-called "Freedom Day". There it remains until Omicron appears and sends the numbers through the roof, especially in the Christmas and New Year weeks. January is now a socially quiet month, which brought the prevalence down, and then removing restrictions and the legal requirement to self-isolate allowed people to behave "normally", sending the prevalence up again. By then, between the vaccines and the relatively benign nature of Omicron, so-called "cases" ceased to matter.