Thursday, 21 July 2016

Here’s What the Brexit Negotiations Are Really About

In case you’re not clear. EC <> Europe <> EEC <> EU <> Euro <> European Parliament. The EC is a sort of activist Civil Service that thinks it runs the EU. The EU is 28 countries who send MPs to the European Parliament. That’s the thing that can be “ever closer union-ed”. The EEC is the free trade zone and the EU is part of that. So is Norway, which is not in the EU. Trade negotiations between the rest of the world and the EEC are done by the EC.

Brexit is not a divorce. It’s a business deal that must be settled by politicians. Until Brexit hit the fan, the EC thought that it would lead the negotiations if any country did invoke Article 50. Greece tried threats and the EC stomped on it. Greece was in the Euro and could not implement a Grexit unless it first re-invented the drachma. Britain is not Greece and never lost the Pound Sterling, and Brexit is simply too large and serious for bureaucrats.

Because they are not negotiating with Britain. They are negotiating with the 28 countries of the EU about what leaving the EU looks like.

Whatever Britain gets will be what any other country will get on exit from the EU. This puts the other 27 in an interesting position: in negotiating with Britain they are negotiating the conditions they will get if they want to leave. Would you put locks on that door? The negotiations are not between Britain and the other 27, but between the 28 and the European Commission. Guess which way this is going to go?

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